Latest IATA forecast surpasses earlier estimate by almost half.
The world's airlines will lose $5.6 billion in 2010, nearly 50 percent higher than a forecast of $3.8 billion in September, because of rising fuel prices, the International Air Transport Association said.
The projected 2010 loss is almost half the $11 billion deficit IATA is forecasting for this year as passenger and cargo demand recover from recession.
"The worst is likely behind us," said IATA director general Giovanni Bisignani.
"From 2010, some key statistics are moving in the right direction. Demand will likely continue to improve and airlines are expected to drive down non-fuel unit costs by 1.3 percent," Bisignani said. But "fuel costs are rising and yields are a continuing disaster," he said.
IATA expects cargo demand to grow by 7 percent to 37.7 million tonnes in 2010, stronger than the previously forecast five percent in September, following a 13 percent decline in 2009.
Total freight traffic will remain 10 percent below the 41.8 million tonne peak recorded in 2007.
Cargo demand is rising faster than world trade as depleted inventories are rebuilt. "But once the inventory cycle completes, growth is expected to fall back in line with world trade," according to IATA.
Cargo yields are expected to improve by 0.9 percent in 2010 after falling by 15 percent this year.
European carriers will suffer the biggest losses of any region in 2010 at a combined $2.5 billion against $3.5 billion in 2009.
Asia/Pacific carriers will experience the most dramatic recovery with losses falling to $700 million from $3.4 billion this year.
North American airlines likely will shrink 2010 losses to $2 billion from $2.9 billion in 2009.
Latin American carriers will be the only profitable regional grouping with earnings of $100 million in both 2009 and 2010.
The Journal of Commerce Online
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