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There could be a shortage of containerships by 2012 as the newbuilding orderbook approaches 10-year lows, according to new analysis by Macquarie Equities Research.
In its latest Vital Signs shipping report, Macquarie found that the current boxship orderbook would produce a 10% increase in the global fleet’s size next year, falling to 6% growth in 2012.
“Based on our view that volumes will achieve minimum growth of 8% a year, we are potentially facing a shortage of capacity in 2012,” said the authors.
“The orderbook as a percentage of the current fleet is approaching lows last seen in 2003, ahead of the last boom in containership profits.”
Alphaliner estimates that some 6.7% of the orderbook has been cancelled since the beginning of the global financial crisis in October 2008, while scrapping has also made a sizeable dent in capacity.
In 2009, only two new containership orders were placed and this year, the 55 vessels that have been ordered equates to just 2.2% of the existing fleet.
Macquarie said: “Due to solid deliveries year-to-date, the orderbook has fallen to 26.4% of the cellular fleet from 36.1% in January and a peak of 64.2% in November 2007.”
Just a year ago many in the industry were predicting that it would take until 2015 for supply and demand to return to balance. But in the first half of this year, the rebound in demand on most routes, led by intra-Asia and Asia-Europe, saw lines return to profit early, helped by the use of slow-steaming strategies.
According to Macquarie, collective operating profits for 20 of the world’s 30 largest containership operators, for which data is available for the first half of 2010, totalled US$3.8 billion, compared with US$6.9 billion a year earlier,
In previous upturns, lines have ploughed profits into new vessels, but the pace of orders is being stymied by the hole in balance sheets after losses and constraints on financing, especially for non-vessel operating owners.
“Of the orders placed this year, only 23% have come from non-operating owners,” said Macquarie.
International Freighting Weekly
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