Import cargo volume at major retail container ports in the US is expected to see three straight months of gains in early 2010 after more than two years of year-on-year declines, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.
“We’ve been seeing hints of a turnaround in our past few reports but this is starting to look like a clear trend,” NRF vice-president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said.
“If retailers are starting to import more merchandise, it’s because they expect to be able to sell more and that’s a good sign for our industry and the overall economy.”
US ports surveyed handled 1.18 million TEUs in October, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was up four percent from September as retailers hit their busiest shipping month of the year as the holiday season approached, but nonetheless down 14 percent from October 2008 and marked the 28th month in a row to see a year-over-year decline.
November was estimated at 1.09 million TEU, down 12 percent from last year, and December is forecast at 1.05 million TEU, down one percent from last year. January 2010 is forecast at 1.02 million TEU, down four percent from January 2009.
The January figure would mark the 31st month of year-over-year declines, but the trend is forecast to be broken in February 2010, when cargo is expected to total. 972,391 TEU
The figure is below the one million mark because February is the slowest month of the year, but would be a 16 percent increase over February 2009. March 2010 is forecast at 1.02 million TEU, a 6 percent increase over March 2009, and April 2010 is forecast at 1.08 million TEU, a 9 percent increase over April 2009. Port Tracker forecasts only six months in advance, so later numbers aren’t yet known.
The report now expects 2009 to end with a total volume of 12.6 million TEU, a drop of 17 percent from last year’s 15.2 million TEU and the lowest since the 12.47 million TEU imported in 2003.
“The second half of 2009 has seen an improvement with less bad year-over-year numbers compared with the first half,” IHS Global Insight economist Paul Bingham said.
“While improving, import container traffic is projected to be weak through March due to the traditional slow season combined with the weak pace of economic recovery.”
Cargonews Asia
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