According to Journal of Commerce economist Mario Moreno, transpacific container trade is forecast to grow at a healthy rate of 9.1% in 2011, compared with 10.4% in 2010, despite continuing economic challenges in the global economy.
While still eluding peak volumes of 2007, eastbound trade is expected to increase by 8.2% to 13.5 million TEU and westbound trade by 11% to 6.9 million TEU.
Auto sales, which account for nearly 25% of total US retail sales, were up 12.2% from 2009, resulting in a 40$ increase in containerised imports of auto parts. With auto sales still running below replacement levels, Moreno expects sales will continue to increase in 2011.
Transpacific westbound trade growth is forecast to almost triple in 2011, following a 4.3% increase in 2010. Asian economies will expand primarily Northeast Asia at 4.8%, Southeast Asia by 5.2% and the India subcontinent by 6.5%.
This positive growth for US exports will be led by China - the largest US container export market.
Southeast Asia growth will be led by Indonesia and Vietnam.
Improvements in the India subcontinent's manufacturing capacity means increased demand for containerised imports of US raw materials.
While the forecast is positive, challenges persist which may impact forecasted growth rates, including increasing oil prices, partly as a result of political unrest in the Middle East, and the potential souring of trade relations should the US government decide to punish countries, like China, which the US alleges to be currency manipulators.
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