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Asia-Europe ocean carriers are preparing to add new capacity even though analysts have questioned whether rate increases planned for early next year will be successful.
Analysts said that, “surprisingly”, Maersk line was re-introducing its AE9 service, just two months after its suspension, in line with a seasonal lull in demand.
Taiwanese carrier Wan Hai Lines and its partner PIL are set to re-launch their eight-vessel joint Far East to Black Sea service and reports suggest the CKYH Alliance will add between 25% and 50% more Asia-Europe capacity next year.
However, many carriers have also announced rate increases of between US$500-600 per feu for the Asia-Europe trades.
And, according to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, vessel utilisation on the Asia-Europe trade is at around 80% to 85% – lower than the level normally needed before rates can increase.
Analyst Dynaliners said Maersk Line’s decision to add capacity could be because it expected a repeat of this year, when an unexpected surge in volumes meant demand exceeded supply and rates reached record levels.
But it also suggests carriers could be satisfied with current rate levels.
Dynaliners said: “The Danes [Maersk Line], apparently satisfied with current rate levels and confident that [rate] increases recently announced will hold, are not alone in their apparent assumption that recent history is about to repeat itself.
“This explains why the number of laid-up ships is developing slower than it was generally forecasted.
“Sailings may have been skipped and seasonal links withdrawn, but most of the associated vessels have continued operating on other routes.
“Those who had expected carriers to artificially drive-up rates by cutting capacity through increased lay-up activity appear to be wrong and probably [will continue to be] as long as there is an acceptable rate bottom in the market.”
Paris-based analyst Alphaliner said: “The two primary factors which caused the surge in freight rates almost 12 months ago are now noticeably absent.
“Carriers have only made modest capacity reductions during the current winter period and some even continue to add new capacity, despite only moderate utilisation levels.
“Inventory levels also reached a new record high in the US in November as stock replenishment appears to have reached a peak.
“These two factors suggest that the carriers’ planned price increases will be less successful this time.”
International Freighting Weekly
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