Drewry has published an analysis of how a Suez Canal closure would affect the container industry in the latest issue of its Container Insight Weekly.
The London-based firm said if the Suez Canal was suddenly closed, container vessel schedules between Asia and Europe could be immediately adjusted to minimize delays by simply increasing speeds to 22 knots in each direction and sailing around the Cape of Good Hope.
"Shippers would have to pay a hefty surcharge to cover the cost," it cautioned. Today it says average headhaul speeds for various alliances range from 18.1 to 20.4 knots on the headhaul from Asia to North Europe and from 13.4 to 16.9 knots on backhauls.
Drewry notes that the Suez Canal is "a key component in Asia-Europe container trade, and is becoming more important for Asia-U.S. East Coast trade, too."
"Shippers would have to pay a hefty surcharge to cover the cost of deviating around the Cape of Good Hope," it said.
"A further complication of replacing the capacity provided by vessels stopping off in the Mediterranean en route from the Far East to Northern Europe remains, but direct services still currently have enough spare capacity for this," said Drewry. It noted "the low probability of the Suez Canal closing has increased due to the threat of terrorist activity from either the ousted Muslim Brotherhood party or one of its rivals for power."
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